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When will superconductor cable technology be widely applied?
Release time:
2025-01-02
Widespread application of superconducting cables still faces multiple technological and economic challenges. Commercial-scale promotion is expected to be achieved in 2030-2035. The specific development path and core breakthroughs are as follows
The large-scale application of superconducting cables still faces multiple technological and economic challenges. Commercial promotion is expected to be achieved in 2030-2035. The specific development path and core breakthroughs are as follows:
I. Current Technological Bottlenecks and Research Progress
Bottleneck Areas Current Status (2025) Breakthrough Directions (2025-2030) Milestone Cases
Refrigeration System Energy Consumption Liquid nitrogen cooling power consumption ≥0.3kWh/km·h Compact helium recovery refrigerator (COP≥1.2) Siemens 2026 pilot COP=0.98
Superconducting Tape Cost MgB₂ tape $200/meter Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) mass production process Shanghai Superconductor 2027 target cost $80/meter
Fault Isolation Technology Short-circuit current interruption requires 15ms (traditional power grid 5ms) Superconducting fault current limiter (SFCL) parallel protection State Grid Zhangbei project 2025 test response 8ms
Joint Reliability Joint resistance accounts for >30% of total losses Laser welding + superconducting silver transition layer (resistance ≤10⁻¹⁰Ω) Sumitomo Electric Industries 2026 target value achieved
II. Large-Scale Application Timeline by Scenario
1. High-Value Leading Scenarios (2025-2028)
Data Center Clusters
Driving force: AI computing center power density exceeds 100kW/cabinet, traditional copper cables cannot support
Case: Google Las Vegas data center 2026 deployment ±1.5kV superconducting DC ring network (carrying 48kA)
Economy: Saves 37% cooling energy consumption compared to multi-circuit copper cable solutions, payback period <5 years
Special Industrial Power Supply
Scenario: Aluminum electrolysis plant (requires 500kA current), electric arc furnace
Progress: Baotou Aluminum demonstration project (2027) uses superconducting cables to replace 24 sets of copper busbars, saving ¥230 million in electricity costs annually
2. Urban Power Grid Transformation (2030-2035)
City Type Application Stage Core Obstacles Solution Path
Megacities 10% penetration rate in core areas from 2030 Limited underground gallery space Superconducting cables replace 6 traditional lines
Emerging Cities Standard configuration in newly built areas from 2035 Comprehensive cost 300% higher Government subsidies + carbon trading revenue compensation
Old Urban Areas Gradual replacement after 2040 Fault maintenance requires shutdown of the entire line Modular plug-and-play connector technology matures
III. Cost Reduction Path Prediction
mermaid
Copy Code
graph LR
A[2025] -->|Tape Mass Production| B[$200/meter]
B --> C[2028] -->|CVD Process Popularization| D[$120/meter]
D --> E[2030] -->|High-Temperature Superconducting Tape| F[$60/meter]
F --> G[2035] -->|Refrigeration-Free New Materials| H[$25/meter]
H --> I[Unit Cost ≈ 2 Times Traditional Cable]
Note: When the comprehensive cost of superconducting cables is reduced to within 2.5 times of the traditional solution, it has economic substitutability in power transmission scenarios over 300 meters (when the current carrying capacity demand >3kA).
IV. Technological Route Competition Landscape
High-Temperature Superconducting (HTS) Route
Mainstream materials: REBCO (Yttrium Barium Copper Oxide), MgB₂ (Magnesium Diboride)
Advantages: Higher critical temperature (-160℃ to -140℃)
Bottlenecks: REBCO tape has weak mechanical strength, MgB₂ has low current density
Room-Temperature Superconductivity (Will Disrupt the Industry if Breakthrough Achieved)
Latest Progress: After the controversy over LK-99 material, MIT announced carbon hydrosulfide (Tc=15℃) in 2025
Industrialization Obstacles: Requires a stable environment of 10,000 atmospheres, more than 15 years away from engineering applications
V. Policy and Infrastructure Preparation
China: The 14th Five-Year Plan invests ¥80 billion to build superconducting grid demonstration areas (Shanghai Lingang, Xiong'an New Area)
EU: The Horizon Europe plan requires 10% of newly built substations to use superconducting equipment by 2030
Standard Construction: IEEE P2747 superconducting cable international standard to be completed in 2026
Conclusion: Key Nodes for Large-Scale Application
2028: Penetration rate of high-current carrying scenarios (data centers/heavy industry) exceeds 5%
2032: The cost of superconducting tapes drops to $50/meter, and refrigeration energy consumption is reduced by 60%.
2035: Superconducting solutions account for ≥15% of new urban power grid projects globally.
⚠️ Risk Warning: If a breakthrough in room-temperature superconductivity is not achieved, a shortage of liquid helium (prices surged 300% in 2025) may delay the commercialization process. Attention should be paid to the progress of helium recovery technology and alternative new refrigerants.
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